Will Isabel Hit D.C. and New York City?

Here is what a Christian brother who works for the National Weather Service passed to his Washington D.C. area pastor Friday:

The latest two runs of our Global Forecast System (GFS) model BOTH bring hurricane Isabel very close to the middle Atlantic coast rather than Florida where yesterday's model runs took it. In fact, both the Washington D.C. area and the New York City area would probably suffer severe damage if these models have projected correctly.

Technical note for the meteorologists: One of the model runs was hinting at a baroclinic interaction with a digging trough in the Mississippi Valley that was reminiscent of what happened with both the 1938 hurricane that hit Long Island and New England and Hazel, that made landfall near Myrtle Beach and went west of DC into Canada near Toronto where it caused major flooding. Only the projected path of Isabel by these models is directly between the 1938 Hurricane and Hazel, to cause maximum damage to all the major east coast cities from Norfolk to New York!!! Both of these historic storms were on the boundary between strong Category 3 and Category 4 when they made landfall, and both caused major damage along the coast from winds and tides. Widespread floods resulted in significant damage inland west of their tracks. We will see.... AJW

History of Category 5 hurricanes – USA Today

Click here for article.

To qualify as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale, maximum sustained winds must exceed 156 mph (135 kt). Through 1998, only twenty-two Atlantic storms have reached this intensity, and only eight were of category 5 strength at time of landfall. Of these 22, only two made U.S. landfall: the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane and Hurricane Camille, which hit the Mississippi coastline in 1969.

Fortunately Category 5 hurricanes, with winds faster than 156 mph, are rare with only three hitting the USA in the 20th century. 2003's Hurricane Isabel is the Atlantic's first Category 5 hurricane of the 21st Century.

It remains a significant threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast, but forecasters are unsure if it will hit either, nor what its intensity will be at potential landfall. Peak sustained winds have been at least 160 mph for more than 24 hours beginning the afternoon of Sept. 11.

It's unlikely Isabel will maintain Category 5 intensity for much longer, and even more doubtful it will retain that intensity until striking land. Forecasters, however, do admit that predicting hurricane intensity is even less precise than predicting where a hurricane might go.

The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms to hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards. The three Category 5 storms to hit the USA were the 1935 Florida Keys “Labor Day” hurricane, Hurricane Camille, which hit Mississippi in 1969, and Hurricane Andrew, which hit Dade County, Fla., on Aug. 24, 1992.

Hurricane Isabel is receiving a lot of attention. It is one of 12 Category 5’s in history. Three have it land in the last 100 years. Hurricane Mitch (1998), Hurricane Andrew (1992) and Hurricane Camile (1969).

Arafat

Ironically, the U.S. refuses to deal with PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat but has come out strongly against Israel’s plan to exile him. It is also very obvious that Arafat is still calling the shots, and that his Prime Ministers are his puppets. The White House states they will not work with him, but in reality they are. The Palestinian Prime Ministers are controlled exclusively by Arafat. The rest of the global community says they will work with Arafat, carte blanche. However, if the Bush Administration backs out of the peace process, which is very unlikely, the EU and the UN will step in just as they nearly did in the first week of April 2002. Furthermore, Bush made a personal commitment to the Israeli – Palestinian peace process, so he is locked in and does not want to submit the situation to the EU and/or the UN. Ironically, he needs the world community’s military and financial support in Iraq.

When Sharon’s Cabinet voted in favor of expelling Arafat, it prompted the White House and the International community to urge Israel to leave Arafat in power. As stated in a Sunday Haaretz article, it raised the question of whether Sharon merely wanted to prove to the far right-wing ministers that their old proposal to remove Arafat would elicit American objections. The issue snowballed and simultaneously became both an International and American problem for Israel, even before the expulsion was carried out.

In Washington, the first step was Israel's announcement to U.S. Ambassador Dan Kurtzer that Sharon's bureau chief, Dov Weisglass, intended to discuss the possibility of deporting Arafat. Kurtzer, in a public statement, said the administration objected to deporting Arafat, this before Weisglass even left Israel.. Despite this, Weisglass brought it up in Washington. That meant Sharon wanted to hear another `no' from the Americans in Washington, not only from Kurtzer.

This time it was Condoleeza Rice herself who said `no' to Israel. On the face of it, this was enough to persuade Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and other right-wing ministers that it was not advisable to act against the Administration's wishes. Indeed, the subject was not raised again in the cabinet until the Hamas' dual attacks last week.

Ze’ev Schiff of Haaretz in his commentary “A dead-end move,” stated he believes that with the cabinet's decision, Israel maneuvered itself into a dead end. If it expels Arafat, it will enter into confrontation with opposing international governments, without Washington's backing this time. If it withdraws from its declared intention, its prestige will suffer. It will appear that Israel is under Washington's thumb. If the government deports Arafat and he is harmed in the process, a situation will arise described by one Israeli political leader as "we don't need another Jesus, for whose death the Jews will be blamed."

Could Hurricane Isabel be God’s judgment for the U.S. role in the Arafat fiasco and the Road Map?

The United States certainly has other pressing sin issues subject to judgment but Isabel has had a direct tie-in to Israel from its beginning.

Yasser Arafat is the number one enemy of Israel and he wants a large chunk of God’s covenant land. Ironically, Arafat has served a prophetic purpose. In my opinion, his days are numbered and only the Lord knows the details.

Interestingly, the present circumstances remind me of what transpired during the summer of 2001. World nations and church organizations touting replacement theology (The Vatican, the World Council of Churches and the National Council of Churches), publicly established their position regarding God’s covenant land, calling on Israel to leave the occupied (disputed) land. Again, in the last week, despite refusing to work directly with him, the United States has publicly called on Israel to change its mind regarding the expulsion of Yasser Arafat. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday, “Israel would incite rage not only among Arabs but also Muslims everywhere by exiling or executing Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat.” (Note: A prime example that terrorism is having an impact.)

Powell, speaking from Baghdad during a visit to Iraq, also said that Israeli politicians are not helping the U.S.-sponsored peace process by making such statements as vice prime minister Ehud Olmert's comment on Sunday. His comment said that "killing (Arafat) is definitely one of the “options" under consideration by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government.

In other words, it is acceptable for the United States to target Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussien and his sons, but not acceptable for Israel to target Yasser Arafat (since he was elected).

Key News Headlines

These headlines give you a feel for the intensity of the news since last Saturday.

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